Despite Q1’s slow start, publishers are bullish about events revenue for 2023

With publishers reporting that Q1 advertising revenue is tracking 10% to 25% down from forecasts and with RPMs (revenue earned per 1,000 pageviews) from open marketplace programmatic ads down even further — between 20% and 55% year over year — finding silver linings is more important than ever. And based on four publishers’ experiences so far this quarter, it looks like events might be that small saving grace.

Earlier this year, several publishers said they were pushing back the timelines for their tentpole events to the second half of the year, in order to give advertisers more time to secure the budgets necessary for higher-cost event partnerships. This strategy, combined with advertisers’ quest to get the most bang for their buck, seems to have paid off.

Publishers are finding that not only are advertisers willing to sign campaign deals this quarter, but they’re also willing to commit to events as far as nine months out. With these promising indicators, some publishers are anticipating doubling their event revenue this year.

“Experiential [is] something that we’re still really committed to being a big platform for ’23, despite the potential economic challenges for brands,” said a digital publishing executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. And early indicators show that brands are willing to spend on event partnerships if they can achieve the ever-desirable, full-funnel reach.

Publishers’ event strategies have been ramping up over time. In the summer, a Digiday+ Research survey found that 78% of publishers said they planned to focus at least a small amount on building their events business in the next six months, with 40% saying building up their events would be a large focus.

But not all publishers agree that experiential will be the saving grace for 2023, especially because quick-turn campaigns are still being prioritized by clients and many publishers don’t have a permanent event space at their disposal.

Another publisher who spoke on the condition of anonymity said they will be prioritizing “a lot more private marketplace and programmatic guaranteed deals.”

“I don’t think you’ll see from anyone in this space, some ginormous, meaty, experiential [campaigns] that would be too top-of-the-funnel [focused], given the uncertainty [of the economy this year],” the publisher added.

Guaranteeing more results

A significant appeal of events is they can offer a more holistic set of data post-campaign that advertisers are not always able to get from digital campaigns or social media branded content, according to the publisher. For example, being directly in front of audiences can guarantee people interact with the brand, and social amplification around events can provide more impressions even beyond the people in attendance. In some cases, adding commerce components can also provide a full-funnel effect, from brand awareness to point of purchase.

“From a client’s perspective, they want to spend their money where their money is gonna work the hardest and they’re going to get the most return from every dollar spent,” said Jon Lefferts, evp of integrated investment at UM.

Apartment Therapy was one publisher that pushed back the timeframe for its tentpole event Small/Cool to the fall of 2023 after it took place in spring during the year prior. About nine to 10 months out from the event, the company signed two sponsors that together represent a quarter of the anticipated revenue for Small/Cool, according to Apartment Therapy president Riva Syrop.

Overall, interest in events (both standalone custom events and sponsorships on editorial events) has “significantly increased” year over year, Syrop added. She declined to share exact growth figures, but said that this increase in interest from advertisers is largely attributed to brands wanting to be a part of “proven franchises” that will deliver on the objectives, or key performance indicators, they need to justify their marketing budgets in 2023.

“They want a proven franchise or format that they’re confident will perform against their KPIs in terms of consumer turnout, press coverage and online reach,” Syrop wrote in an email to Digiday. She did not say whether AT is offering any guarantees on specific KPIs.

Another experiential format that’s picking up interest from Apartment Therapy’s clients is in-store activations, including creating curated displays in retail spaces that have the AT stamp of approval, Syrop said. These activations are very centered around commerce, which has been a desirable way for events to achieve the bottom-of-funnel quality that’s largely desired by advertisers during an economic downturn.

For BDG, which has had a “surprisingly difficult” start to 2023, per an internal email from CEO Bryan Goldberg (the company has laid off 8% of its total staff and shuttered Gawker 2.0), its events business is on an upward trajectory, counter to the industry trends reported around advertising revenue.

So far, BDG’s Nylon House and ZOEasis event franchises have sold five sponsorships for their Coachella iterations this year, according to BDG president and CRO Jason Wagenheim, who declined to share hard revenue figures. This is halfway to the number of sponsors attached to the company’s Coachella events in 2022, said a spokesperson.

The Nylon House franchise will also launch at Formula One in Miami in May and is already attracting sponsor interest, though Wagenheim wouldn’t say whether sponsorships have already been sold against that event, and the house will return to Art Basel again after a profitable run in 2022. More events from that franchise will be built if they’re sold to advertisers, he added. 

Last year, BDG invested heavily in revamping its events business. That revenue stream doubled in 2022 over 2021, growing to represent “nearly” $10 million in revenue, Wagenheim said.

“The model is working for us. I’m expecting this to be another year where we double the experiential business,” said Wagenheim.

Making events cheaper and more turnkey

Another reason publishers are bullish on events this year is that some, including Forbes, have gone to great lengths to decrease the overhead costs that typically fall back on sponsors to foot the bill, like investing in permanent or semi-permanent event spaces.

The first publisher who spoke to Digiday for this story said that their event space enables their team to avoid signing new rental agreements for each event and building up a new space each time. They declined to share how much upfront cost savings amount to as a result of the strategy.

“One-off custom events are really cost prohibitive for brands and then also very production-heavy because you’re constantly rebuilding a space. [We have] an always-on, programmable space, that allows us to not have to pass a massive investment off to a brand,” the first publisher said.

Forbes’ permanent events space is called Forbes on Fifth and is located in Manhattan. And Sherry Phillips, CRO of Forbes, said having the space available for both tentpole editorial events and custom events for sponsors has made experiential campaigns much faster to execute — though she declined to share exact timelines. This is something many advertisers and media buyers look for when advertising budgets get approved last minute and in-quarter ad buys are still top of mind. Phillips did not share how much the space costs to lease or own.

“[Clients] don’t want to put down dollars that [they] can’t recoup. You don’t know what’s going to happen in two months, and you’re [being asked to] put money down for six months in advance. I think publishers, networks, whoever it might be, need to be more flexible and need to condense their timelines” when it comes to these large media buys, Lefferts said.

Wagenheim added that event execution is getting faster in general, as brands seek shorter turnaround times and in-quarter executions. 

“Ideally, it’s about four to five months out that we’re able to lock them up, but realistically speaking, it’s typically more in that two to three months range,” said Wagenheim.

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Why one agency is drawing inspiration from Jesus and avocados for Super Bowl marketing

For any ad agency, it’s a big win to produce a Super Bowl commercial. (This year’s 30-second spots cost $7 million each.) For the team at Lerma, a multicultural agency in Dallas, being chosen to produce three Super Bowl spots is a privilege, especially because it’s the first time the shop has created ads for the big game.

The agency is producing a 30-second commercial for Avocados from Mexico, and 30- and 60-second spots for He Gets Us, a Christian nonprofit organization. Both campaigns are national ad buys.

According to Variety’s prediction, Super Bowl LVII will verge on 100 million viewers in the United States, a figure not recorded since 2018. It’s one of the reasons He Gets Us has chosen the event for its multi-million-dollar ad campaign, which is supported by several anonymous donors.

For its part, Avocados from Mexico unveiled the teaser of what what viewers will see during the big game. And the ad starring actress and comedy star Anna Faris aims to surprise audiences in a way never seen before, the agency says.

Digiday spoke with Pedro Lerma, founder and CEO of Lerma, who talked about the relevance of a multicultural approach that can fit with any campaign, the growing influence of Hispanic culture and why it is imperative that brands work with agencies that bring experience to the table.

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

This is the first time Lerma has produced TV spots for the Super Bowl. What has the experience been like?

The stakes are as high as they get. Seven million dollars for 30 seconds. But honestly, we treat every client assignment with this level of care. The experience has been exciting, as you might imagine, particularly considering we have been an independent agency for less than two years.

Some agencies have overcome challenges by producing a single ad for the Big Game. How did the planning and execution go when producing three for the same year?

Fortunately, we were well-prepared for this moment. We’ve grown by more than 100% over the last 18 months. We’ve brought on amazing talent. We have had two distinct creative groups working on the Avocados From Mexico and He Gets Us spots. The leads on these assignments have previous Super Bowl experience, so we knew we had the firepower. That experience allowed us to focus on breakthrough creativity and to not be overwhelmed by the logistics.

We understand that one of the objectives of Avocados from Mexico is to reach the tables of millions of consumers who watch the Super Bowl. Would you share with us something that viewers should expect to see in that TV spot?

For Avocados From Mexico, Super Bowl Sunday is the single biggest avocado consumption day of the year. In fact, 105 million pounds of avocados are consumed on that one day. So, every year, we try to engage the audience with something fun. This year, it’s 30 seconds of naked people, including Hollywood star Anna Faris. I don’t want to share too much, but hopefully that is enough to get people to look forward to watching our spot.

Talking about multicultural products, such as avocados, how did the understanding of the mix between Latino and American culture play a key role in this marketing strategy?

Avocados From Mexico understands and values the fact that Hispanic influence on culture is at an all-time high. Everything from music to film to cuisine is becoming more and more Hispanic. We believe Avocados From Mexico are part of driving that cultural appreciation and, as an agency built on a foundation of multiculturalism, it is work we are proud to do.

What was the main message conveyed when Lerma gave the final cut to the He Gets Us spots? How is promoting religion during a Super Bowl a different task for an agency?

What we hope viewers take away from our He Gets Us work in the Super Bowl is that Jesus was a pretty incredible model for how to deal with conflict and divisiveness, the kind of model we could all use right now. He didn’t shy away from conflict, but he also didn’t approach it with dehumanizing aggression either. He chose a third, better way. He was vocal about what he believed. He spoke truth to power, defended the poor and the marginalized, and represented his identity to others consistently. But he also blew people’s minds with how loving and generous he was in the process.

And how is this different from any other product in the Super Bowl? On the one hand, it might be one of the most difficult Super Bowl assignments there is. It’s no secret that a growing number of people in America are skeptical of religion, Christianity and Christians. On the other hand, our approach is to just tell the truth about Jesus’ life, show how it’s relevant to life today and let people decide for themselves if they want to learn more or not.

How have you seen the evolution of brands choosing Hispanic agencies to include the Latino demographic, especially in big events like a Super Bowl?

We see ourselves as an agency for the changing face of America, recognizing that the time for a new agency blueprint is now. As the rising multicultural population (particularly Hispanic) causes brands to reimagine terms like “general market,” it is imperative that brands work with agencies who not only have multicultural expertise but can translate that expertise into creative work that resonates across cultures. We expect to see more of that during this year’s Super Bowl, and we believe this is just the beginning.

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